By Chris Sherman

                I don’t usually choose to write about the Phillies.  I love the team, it’s just that baseball is such an individualized team sport that I don’t feel I can add a different perspective to the team that statistics don’t already point out (i.e. I can, in football, attribute that a bad cornerback has a bad defensive line or safeties instead of bad skill, but in baseball that doesn’t really work).  Fortunately, I still feel free to be opinionated on decisions that haven’t been made yet.  Earlier this week I started asking myself, while Roy Halladay will probably be pitching game #1 in the playoffs, who will pitch game #2?  Will it be Cole Hamels or Roy Oswalt?

                The first factor to throw away is that the #2 pitcher is allowed to pitch multiple games in the NLDS.  Remember, that since the Phillies opted for an 8-game divisional series, they will probably choose to skip big Joe Blanton for this round and go for a 3 man rotation.  Asking about who, between Hamels and Oswalt, is more likely to win a generic game is like asking me which one of my kids I love more… if I had any kids (but I really like the expression).

                My first thought was to insert Hamels as 2nd because the lefty breaks up the two righties.  If any team chooses to try and adjust (or stack) their lineup to take advantage of a particular arm that the pitcher uses, this strategy could really keep a team from getting into their offensive groove.  If a player, especially a player who might be in their first playoff series, is changing roles on a daily basis, they may never get comfortable in the batter’s box.

                However, I started thinking about the differences that the #2 and #3 starters experience.  Since the Phillies have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, the #2 pitcher will always pitch home games.  The #3 pitcher will pitch away games unless the series goes long forcing them to pitch at home.  So I checked out their stats.  Hamels is roughly the same home or away.  He is 7-6 with a 3.14 ERA at home and 5-5 with a 3.02 ERA on the road.  Oswalt, on the other hand, has a remarkable 5-0 record (6 starts) with a 1.76 ERA pitching in Citizens Bank Park.  With two pitchers who seem as skilled as each other, a more obvious sign of who to pitch in which situation cannot be found.  This tells you that Oswalt should be pitching at home (#2) and that Hamels can pitch wherever he’s needed (#3).

                The only other factor to consider is that if the NLDS reaches five games in length (and assuming the Phillies still win), the Phillies will have to swap their #2 and #3 pitchers in the rotation to keep them on normal rest.  Thanks to this factor, there could definitely be an argument to pitching Hamels 2^nd in the NLDS and then switching the two regardless of circumstances in the NLCS.  However, this does force Oswalt to pitch on the road in the NLDS.  So I leave it up to Charlie, I just felt like pointing out a couple of statistical helpers

P.S. I read an article on the official Phillies website by Todd Zolecki in which he included Kyle Kendrick amongst a number of safe bets for the NLDS roster.  Really?  He might be amongst the reasonable bets for the NLCS and WS as a long reliever, but Joe Blanton can handle those duties in the NLDS with a 3-man pitching rotation.  Unless Charlie and Ruben feel that Kyle is a better mid-reliever than David Herndon and Danys Baez (not saying that he couldn’t be), I don’t think Kendrick is at all a safe bet.  Here are my predictions for the NLDS playoff roster:

Position Players:

Ruiz, Schneider, Howard, Sweeney, Gload, Utley, Polanco, Rollins, Valdez, Ibanez, Victorino, Werth, Francisco, Brown

Pitchers:

Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Blanton, Lidge, Madson, Romero, Durbin, Contreras, Bastardo (hopefully he can pitch like he did on Tuesday night), and Herndon (because he’s been used more often lately than Baez and because he’s only given up runs in 1 out of his last 11 appearances).