The Team to Beat

By Nick Carroll
Boy, that was fast.
In a little over the week, the Phillies have gone from the National League’s biggest letdown to the National League’s most feared team.
After seven straight wins in which the offense has had an awakening, the transformation was made complete this afternoon as pitcher Roy Oswalt has reportedly accepted a trade to the two-time defending NL Champs.
There are so many reasons to have optimism, let’s start with the last week.
Jayson Werth has started hitting for power again, Raul Ibanez is driving the ball and the top of the order is table setting for the first time in ages. Also, much-ballyhooed prospect Domonic Brown had a pretty spectacular debut and looks to be all we expected (not to get ahead of myself, but he’s going to be a lot of fun to watch). Oh, and Chase Utley is getting closer and closer to returning.
With the team’s biggest concern (the lineup) figuring things out, the focus turned to the rotation, which was suddenly thin after the Jamie Moyer injury and J.A. Happ’s struggles.
Worry no more, Roy Oswalt is a Phillie.
What this gives the Phillies is three legitimate, top-of-the-line starting pitchers in Oswalt, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. That’s just scary. Hamels and Oswalt have already had great success in the playoffs and one would expect that the calm, collected and prepared Halladay wouldn’t parlay his regular season success into October.
The only teams that can match the Phillies’ starting pitching are the Cardinals and Giants (still not buying the Padres); however, when the Phils are running on all cylinders, neither team can match the Phillies’ offensive production.
Yes, the Phillies still have to complete the comeback and get into the playoffs, but on paper, that should not be an issue.
So, you would expect that the Phillies would have to send a big return back to Houston for Oswalt, and bite the financial bullet.
Nope. For the first time, Ed Wade helped improve this team.
The Astros are picking up a significant portion of Oswalt’s contract for the next season-and-a-half ($11 million of the $23 million owed) and there are conflicting reports on the minor leaguers involved going to Houston with Happ.
The two players we are almost certainly sure are gone are Happ and outfielder Anthony Gose.
Happ has struggled mightily with injuries after an impressive rookie campaign in 2009. However, with shaky control and average “stuff” he was expendable. Taking into account his FIP (fielder independent pitching) numbers and his batting average of balls in play in 2009, he no longer comes off as impressive. Overall, the Phillies probably won’t miss him too much considering it meant getting Oswalt.
Gose, 19, is a speedy outfielder who has struggled so far this season in Clearwater (.263/.325/.385). Even though he has stolen 36 bases so far this season, he has been caught 27 times. In addition, he has struck out an astounding 103 times in 418 at bats, an unacceptable mark for a player whose upside is hitting at the top of the order.
The third player has been debated. Right now, reports are that the third player heading to Houston is pitcher Vance Worley. Worley, 22, has posted a 3.03 ERA primarily with AA Reading. That said, he has does not have hit-and-miss stuff, as evidence by his 6.6 k/9 and is by no means a can’t miss prospect.
First baseman Jonathan Singleton has also been mentioned as a possibility. With Brown in the big leagues, Singleton, 18, may be the Phils’ top hitting prospect, posting .312/.418/.526 at Lakewood. If he’s involved the deal, the hit the Phillies take is significantly greater. However, according to hardballtalk.com, it does not appear that he is.
Considering the Phillies will have two great opportunities to win a World Series with Oswalt, the Astros are paying a significant portion of the bill and the Phillies aren’t sending a ton back to Houston, this is a MAJOR win for the Phils.
Just like last year when Cliff Lee joined a red hot Phils team and they never looked back, the same should be expected this year. The stage is set, the pieces are in place, now here’s to another red October.

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