By: Anthony Jadick

Before all of the Cliff Lee enthusiasts out there begin the “I told you so” chants at the recent acquisition of Roy Oswalt saying that this is solely Amaro admitting a mistake he made with the Cliff Lee deal, let’s try to put the two moves in perspective. 

First off, at the time of the trade, the Phillies had approached Cliff Lee about an extension beyond this year, and were told he wanted to test the free agent market.  Also, more importantly, Roy Halladay was the big fish. That is who Ruben dreamed about leading his rotation.  Despite Lee’s phenomenal performance in the postseason, his 3.39 ERA and inconsistency during the regular season left something to be desired at the time.  On the other hand, Roy is in a league of his own and there is no doubt he will perform masterfully in the playoffs (and pitch effectively on 3 days rest which Cliff Lee was not able to do during the World Series).  Once the Blue Jays decided to soften their demands for Halladay, by agreeing to take Brown and Happ out, and Halladay agreed to a below-market-contract, the deal had to be made.  Then after our farm system took another hit, it needed to be addressed.  The 3 prospects we got in exchange for Lee will be better than any 2 draft picks we would have had if we lost him in free agency.  Bottom line: If I had to choose between 1 year of Lee or 4-5 of Halladay… I’ll take Halladay (in fact I’ll take 1 of Roy over 1 of Cliff).

Roy Oswalt, on the other hand, has cost us 2 prospects and J.A. Happ, who looks like he’ll have a fine career, but isn’t an ace.  The Phils know Happ better than the Astros do.  If it wasn’t for a Kendrick demotion followed by Moyer’s injury, Happ may still be in the minors.  They know what, if anything, is wrong with him on the injury front and may be trying to sell him at his highest value like the Astros are trying to do with Roy.  Now does that mean I think Happ will be an injury riddled player and a disappointing pitcher in a couple of years? Of course not, but lefties don’t mature until their 30s anyway, which doesn’t help us now.  The first of our two prospects, Anthony Gose, is a young and speedy outfielder who the Phils can frankly afford to lose.  There have been questions about his bat and he is hardly an untouchable prospect.  The second prospect, shortstop Jonathon Villar, is in a pretty loaded position for the Phillies.  The Phils are pretty solid up the middle from the Major League level with Utley and Rollins. Meanwhile, we have guys like Galvis (who, despite the Phils being very high on, isn’t having the best year batting .226), Hanzawa, and Garcia in the minors.  That’s not too bad of a hit for us considering our current situation.  After receiving two pitchers and an outfielder for Lee, and giving up Happ and 2 expendable prospects for Roy, our farm system is in arguably better shape after making the Lee and Oswalt deal than it would have been doing neither.  (I don’t count Happ as a prospect as he has already proven he is a major leaguer and Oswalt needs a spot in the rotation.)

Second, not only did we have to give up a lot of prospects to get Lee and Halladay, but the money has to be considered.  The payroll of the Phillies has gone from a little over 27mil in 1999 to over 140mil in 2010.  With the 4^th highest payroll in baseball, calling the Phillies cheap only shows ignorance.  If someone would have told me in 2000 that they would have the 4^th highest payroll in baseball, I would have laughed and said only if Montgomery wins the lottery.  We could not afford to keep both Lee and Halladay.  Sure, hindsight is 20-20, and maybe we should have bitten the bullet for a year.  But pitching hasn’t been our issue.  We now have Oswalt under our control for at least a season and a half and a 3^rd year if we want without expanding our payroll by that much.  And for those people who want to ask why we can afford Oswalt and not Lee, the Phils have received ample money from the Astros to be able to afford him.  The 11 million dollars from the Astros makes the deal doable (thank you Ed Wade).  Cliff Lee would have swallowed 9mil this year and probably 25mil for the next 7 years if we wanted him under our control after this season.  Now not only do we get a “super rotation” similar to the one everyone originally wanted with Halladay-Lee-Hamels, but we also get it for at least 2 years.  Also, the 3mil buy out will be a small price to pay for the 2012 season if the Phillies decide to release him with contracts like Ibanez's off the books.

Lastly, this decision by Amaro is more of a move for luxury than addressing a need.  It shows the guts to go “all-in” which many Cliff Lee sympathizers have criticized Amaro for not having.   The Phillies already have 2 aces atop their rotation in Halladay and Hamels (who is quietly having a great season) and have the 6^th best team ERA in the NL.  That hardly sounds like a team that absolutely needs a top-of-the-rotation starter.  This is a trade for October.  I believe Amaro wouldn’t have made this deal if not for the recent winning streak the Phils have had.  With the division in his cross hairs, Ruben is looking for his Game 3 starter.  As much as I love J.A. Happ, I would rather have Oswalt for Game 3 for the next 2 years than Happ or Big Joe.  Ruben understands that he needs to take advantage of this group of guys and make a stronger run.  He has given them one of the best rotations in all of baseball at a smaller and more effective cost than keeping Lee.  Also, if it doesn't work this year, we have him locked up for next year too.  Sure having Cliff Lee would have been nice, but I think the Phils organization is in better shape now than if we had kept him.  This is the definition of a win-now move.  Bravo Mr. Amaro… bravo