Posted by K. Don

Should we be surprised the Phillies took 2 players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds with pretty mediocre college stats?

Not really.

The Phils have to be one of the 5-most "tools-oriented" teams out there, along with the likes of the Braves and Twins.  They tend to get burned when they see hitting tools at the high school level (Hewitt, Golson), but the college track record has been good (Utley, Howard).

I obviously like stats, but that really only applies at the level of major/minor league scouting, where you can be reasonably sure that the competition is pretty even, and there are enough ABs/IPs to judge. College opponents are just too random and the seasons too short to draw many meaningful conclusions from stats alone.

These top picks might not be the most important players from the draft anyway.  In the last few years, the Phils have been following the lead of the Red Sox/Yankees/Tigers and drafting stud high schoolers in the later rounds who need a big bonus to convince them to drop their college commitment.*  It seems this year the first rounder was nothing special, but a guy who would sign for slot and has a chance to be a decent player.  The breakthrough player might come later if the Phils continue to bust slot.

*This is how they got Brown out of his commitment to play wide receiver at Miami.